从肉牛到牛肉的经济指标分析

Analysis of economic indicators from beef cattle to beef

中文关键词: 肉牛到牛肉生产现状  经济指标  概率分布  置信区间值  盈亏平衡点

英文关键词: beef to beef production status  economic indicators  probability distribution  probability of confidence interval value  break-even point

中文摘要:

      【目的】为了解现阶段肉牛到牛肉之间的联系现状和产出能力，掌握主要经济指标，确定计算肉牛产值的依据。 【方法】以张掖市肉牛与牛肉之间的联系现状为例，从中选取１个能够代表现阶段生产水平的随机样本（n=11777），利用统计分析方法进行分类和分组，列出次数分布表与分布图，研究宰前重、胴体重、净肉重、屠宰率和净肉率5个变量的频率分布，并根据平均数() 和标准差（S）及其分布规律推算出总体平均数u的概率置信区间代表群体生产水平，作为计算肉牛产值的依据。【结果】现阶段进行肉牛生产的主要品种为西门塔尔、安格斯和荷斯坦，公牛育肥产肉占84.54%。其中西门塔尔占74.61%居主导地位，安格斯占16.08%，荷斯坦占9.31%。西门塔尔牛以宰前重在500~700kg的小架子牛育肥产肉占56.12%居主导地位，依次为大架子育肥占39.28%、小牛肉占2.57%和成年牛占2.03%。肉牛宰前重、胴体重、净肉重和屠宰率、净肉率5个指标样本分组频率与正态分布理论概率相关度高、绝对差值小，概率相近。 【结论】现阶段生产牛肉的主要品种有西门塔尔、安格斯和荷斯坦，以公牛育肥为主。主导品种西门塔尔牛生产周期有缩短趋势，小牛肉生产起步。 西门塔尔牛群的宰前重、胴体重、净肉重和屠宰率、净肉率均值为：684.94kg、385.16kg、316.85kg和56.47%、45.71%时，区间为：581.33≦x≦788.55、321.9≦x≦448.40、266.09≦x≦367.61、53.85≦x≦59.09、42.57≦x≦48.85。 大群体宰前重、胴体重和屠宰率的均值为：678.13kg、379.54kg和55.81%%，区间为572.63≦x≦783.63 、311.42≦x≦447.66、52.34≦x≦59.28 。 反映肉牛生产水平的5个经济指标的概率分布为正态分布，平均值（）一倍标准差左右取值概率为0.6827，可用概率密度函数公式进行相应的计算。根据正态分布特点，平均值左右一倍标准差范围内取值的概率最大为，平均值即为群体盈亏平衡点，且主导品种的宰前重、胴体重和屠宰率较大群体分别高6.81kg、5.62kg和0.66%。 祁连牧歌实业有限公司为张掖市规模最大肉牛屠宰加工企业，屠宰牛源为周边规模养殖场育肥牛，该结果能够代表张掖市域内肉牛大群体生产水平，指标平均值（）可以作为计算肉牛产值的统计依据。 生产中可以此为标准对经营情况进行分析，当个体牛只或经营单位的宰前重、胴体重、净肉重和屠宰率、净肉率高于平均值时说明该牛只育肥状况较好或该经营单位经营状态良好，大概率保持盈利。

英文摘要:

      [ objective ] in order to understand the current status of the relationship between beef cattle and beef in our country, and to grasp the fluctuation law of the main economic indicators, the confidence interval values of the main indexes were determined as the statistical basis for calculating beef production value in an area. [ methods ] a random sampNe (n = 11777) representing the current production level was selected from the current status of the association between beef cattle and beefZhangyengye, and the data were classified and grouped by statistical analysis, the probability distribution characteristics of 5 variables including preslaughter weight, carcass weight, net meat weight, slaughter rate and net meat rate were studied, the probability confidence interval of the population mean number u was calculated to represent the population production level according to the mean number (U) , standard deviation (s) and their distribution, which was used as the statistical basis for calculating the beef cattle production value in Zhangye. [ results ] at present, Simmental, Angus and Holstein breeds were used for beef production, and 84.54% of the Bulls were fattened. Among them, Simmental occupied the leading position with 74.61% , Angus occupied 16.08% , Holstein occupied 9.31% . The leading Simmental cattle were small shelf cattle (weighing 500-700 kg before slaughter) , which accounted for 56.12% , followed by large shelf cattle (39.28%) , veal (2.57%) and adult cattle (2.03%) . The grouping frequencies of the five indexes of Simmental cattle weight, carcass weight, net meat weight and slaughter rate, and the three indexes of large population weight, carcass weight and slaughter rate were highly correlated with the theoretical probability of normal distribution, and the absolute difference was small, the probabilities are similar.[ conclusion ] Simmental, Angus and Holstein are the main beef varieties at the present stage, mainly fattening bulls. The production cycle of the dominant Simmental cattle has a tendency to shorten, and veal production has started. The probability distribution of 5 economic indexes including preslaughter weight, carcass weight, net meat weight, slaughter rate and net meat rate obeyed normal distribution law. Probability distribution density curve is a“Bell” smooth curve, available, the density function formula for the corresponding calculation. The probability of the economic index of the dominant breed population and the large population is 0.6827. When the pre-slaughter weight, carcass weight, net meat weight and slaughter rate, net meat rate of the dominant Simmental cattle were 684.94 kg, 385.16 kg, 316.85 kg and 56.47% , 45.71% respectively, the probability distribution density was the highest, in the nterval, the probability of taking a value is 0.6827. 581.33≤ x ≤788.55,321.9≤ x ≤448.40,266.09≤ x ≤367.61,53.85≤ x ≤59.09,42.57≤ x ≤48.85. When the pre-slaughter weight, carcass weight and dressing percentage of large population were equal to 678.13 kg, 379.54 kg and 55.81% , the probability of having the largest probability distribution density and taking values in the interval, namely, 572.63≤ x ≤783.63,311.42≤ x ≤447.66,52.34≤ x ≤59.28, is 0.6827. The average value of 5 economic indexes (pre-slaughter weight, carcass weight, net meat weight, slaughter rate and net meat rate) is the break-even point, the premortem weight, carcass weight and dressing percentage of the dominant variety were 6.81 kg, 5.62 kg and 0.66% higher than those of the large population, respectively. Qilian Madge is Zhangye""s largest beef cattle slaughtering and processing company, slaughtering cattle from nearby farms fattening cattle, the results can be representative of the Zhangye cattle mass production level, it can be used as the statistical basis for calculating beef cattle output value. This can be used as a standard in the production of business analysis, when the pre-slaughter weight, carcass weight, net meat weight, slaughter rate and net meat rate of an individual cow or an operating unit are higher than the average, it indicates that the cattle are fattening well or the operating unit is in good condition, probably stay profitable. In Zhangye, the production level of beef cattle is higher than the average of our country.