活牛、牛肉与生产原料比价关系分析

Analysis of the relation between live cattle, beef and raw materials

中文关键词: 活牛、牛肉、生产原料（玉米）比价  关系分析

英文关键词: live cattle, beef, production raw material (corn) price ratio  Relationship analysis

中文摘要:

      【目的】为掌握肉牛生产及其产品市场价格波动规律，了解牛产业各环节收益和波动情况，及时为生产指导提供科学依据。 【方法】选择在张掖市辖区内设置10个畜产品价格监测点，按日汇总，以最近一个监测周期（410天）数据为总体，选择近3个月和去年同期3个月数据为样本，按统计学原理分析其均值、标准差、误差区间、变异系数、波动趋势概率（P）和增幅等，进行总比、同比分析。【结果】本监测期玉米价格2.890.03、活牛32.772.26、牛肉72.271.97、M 11.410.65 、R 2.210.11；确定以活牛/玉米（M值）为参数，将原料与产品结合起来作活牛成本分析；用牛肉/活牛比价（R值）分析养殖与屠宰消费环节营销利益分配关系。根据M、DP（屠宰率）均值11.41、55.81%确定3个盈亏平衡点为：活牛成本32.97元，牛肉成本59.08元，活牛屠宰到消费端营销成本R值为1.8；根据 R均值2.21确定活牛屠宰到消费端营销临界利润率为 22.7%，当R≧2.21时营销利润率≧22.7%，效益增加，R≦2.21时营销利润率≦22.7%效益降低。【结论】与肉牛生产息息相关的4个临界点分别为M值为11.41，基于M值的活牛成本32.97元、牛肉成本59.08元、活牛屠宰到消费端营销成本R值2.21利润率22.7%。近期M值连续下降溢出正常区间下限值10.65达66天，R值上升溢出正常区间上限2.32达52天，养殖环节收益缩减呈现亏损状态，屠宰消费环节营销利率高达30%。 M、R值变化呈不同步状态， R滞后。

英文摘要:

      【 Objective】 In order to master the fluctuation law of beef cattle production and its product market price, understand the income and fluctuation of each link of cattle industry, and provide scientific basis for production guidance in time.【 Methods】 Ten monitoring points of livestock product prices were set up in Zhangye City and ollected daily. The data of the latest monitoring period (410 days) were taken as the whole, and the data of the last 3 months and the same period of last year were selected as samples. The mean value, standard deviation, error interval, coefficient of variation, probability of fluctuation trend (P) and increase rate were analyzed according to statistical principles. Carry out total comparison and year-on-year analysis.【Results】 Corn price was 2.890.03, live cattle 32.772.26, beef 72.271.97, M 11.410.65, R 2.210.11. Take live cattle/corn (M value) as the parameter, combine raw materials and products for live cattle cost analysis; The ratio of beef/live cattle (R value) was used to analyze the distribution of marketing benefits between breeding and slaughtering. According to the average value of M and DP (slaughter rate) 11.41 and 55.81%, three break-even points were determined as follows: live cattle cost 32.97 yuan, beef cost 59.08 yuan, and marketing cost R value of live cattle slaughtering to consumer end was 1.8; According to R mean 2.21, the marketing critical profit margin from slaughter to consumption of live cattle is 22.7%. When R≧2.21, the marketing profit margin ≧22.7%, the benefit increases; when R≦2.21, the marketing profit margin ≦22.7%, the benefit decreases.【Conclusion】The four critical points closely related to beef cattle production are respectively M value of 11.41, M value of live cattle cost 32.97 yuan, beef cost 59.08 yuan, R value of live cattle slaughtering to consumer marketing cost 2.21 profit margin 22.7%. Recently, the M value has continuously decreased and exceeded the lower limit of the normal range for 10.65 days to 66 days, and the R value has risen and exceeded the upper limit of the normal range for 2.32 days to 52 days. The income of the breeding link has decreased, and the marketing interest rate of the slaughtering and consumption link has reached 30%. The change of M and R values is not synchronous, and R lags.